By ATN
Author: Kevin Brundish, Chief Executive Officer, LionVolt B.V.
Want a simple life when assessing the tech landscape? Study the Big Trends.
Some phenomena go up, with industry analysts seeing them rise in popularity and adoption; some go down as they’re usurped by superior alternatives; most stay fairly stable for a while, sometimes years.
Indeed, when it comes to the internal combustion (IC) engine – the basic underpinning principles of which have remained unchanged for well over a century – consumer reliance on the humble petrol- or diesel-fueled motorcar has been climbing at a steady and predictable pace ever since Henry Ford-style mass production caught on. This is despite the entry of electric vehicles onto the scene, something we first witnessed some years ago now, but which has seen only a modest dent in demand for these traditional vehicles.
Will that dent grow in the future? Our view is yes, but putting a timescale to it is a fool’s errand: the predictability we have seen with IC vehicles doesn’t apply to everything. Some innovations buck the trend of, well, conforming to one clearly defined trend. And so it seems to be with electric vehicles.
On one hand, EVs are clearly on the rise: in some markets, the share of new cars that are electric is pushing 20%, and it’s higher still in outliers like Norway, where 2023 uptake hovered around the 80% mark. These figures represent a steep curve even in the past few years.
On the other, they still represent a tiny proportion of all vehicles on the road, and unless the landscape changes, there’s a danger that they could stagnate.
So what needs to change in that landscape?
Well, beyond the natural laws of supply and demand, there’s a raft of important factors: environmental considerations; tax breaks that might accelerate them; other forms of government intervention and legislation; cost; supply chains; the dearth of supporting infrastructure, such as charging stations… we could go on. But we won’t, because there’s one big consideration that technology-minded people like us can actually directly influence. And that’s the technology at the heart of EVs.
More specifically, we’re talking about batteries.
Batteries designed for vehicles focus on overcoming a range of challenges. Weight, cost and the sourcing of materials are all significant. Beyond these, one factor stands out – the limitations posed by a battery’s range. The distance drivers can currently drive between charging just doesn’t inspire confidence in a sceptical market, with nearly 50% of consumers claiming they’d need a higher real-world range to consider switching from IC vehicles to electric, according to a recent survey by GoCompare.
This makes for frustrating reading for anyone keen to see CO₂ emissions brought down by electrification – which should be everyone. But these low ranges and the slow charging associated with batteries in current use present real hindrances to this goal.
The solution could be closer than you think, though, and it comes in the shape of 3D solid-state batteries. This new technology could be key to far greater uptake at a scale that could set a steep new trend.
What are 3D solid-state batteries and how do they work?
Central to these developments are advances in lithium-ion batteries. Batteries, and cells, that are much faster to charge than those currently used, and can extend range and performance, are essential to overcoming the challenges limiting the shift towards electrification.
For range, the science is centred on energy density – how much energy can be packed into each battery for a given weight. To achieve high density, we are seeing a shift from materials commonly used in today’s cells to more advanced products. New anode technologies, such as silicon and lithium, will increase today’s range and can be ‘dropped into’ the existing supply chain. But to get a significant increase, the production process involves switching the flammable liquid common to old-style batteries with a solid medium that’s non-flammable.
Faster charging, higher performance, intrinsically higher standards of safety, longer battery life and radically lowered carbon footprints are all obvious benefits to drivers and the planet alike.
But extended range is the real gamechanger: driving ranges upwards of 800km – or about 500 miles – are no longer the stuff of a physicist’s fevered imagination and could be the stepchange needed for mass adoption. After all, when was the last time you had to drive any distance as long as that in one go?
And the advantages don’t stop there: less reliance on an increasingly volatile energy market represents a huge incentive to make this work in the industry and beyond – I say ‘beyond’, because larger versions of these batteries have the very real potential of fueling aviation.
The sky, if you’ll pardon the rather obvious pun, really is the limit.
For more battery technology news, click here.
